On September 2, Reuters reported that the US military killed 11 people in a strike on an alleged Venezuelan drug boat. Later news reports suggested that the boat was headed to T&T. On September 4th, the news reported that two F-16s operated by Venezuela flew over a US Navy vessel, a manoeuvre borrowed from Russian pilots who buzzed US destroyers in the Baltic Sea back in 2016.

In response, US President Donald Trump told his generals in a televised interview that he is giving them the discretion to shoot down Venezuelan warplanes if they pose a threat.

The newly renamed Department of War also transferred 10 F-35 fighter jets to Puerto Rico. There are already eight warships and one submarine deployed to the Caribbean, which has historically been a zone of peace, despite issues with gun and drug trafficking.

According to Newsweek, the US Navy ships deployed are as follows: USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham, USS Sampson, USS Iwo Jima, USS San Antonio, USS Fort Lauderdale, USS Lake Erie, USS Minneapolis-Saint Paul and USS Newport News.

This fleet includes four cruise missile destroyers and one Wasp-class Amphibious assault ship, the Iwo Jima, which can carry 1,600 troops.

The Wasp class also doubles as a helicopter and air carrier with a standard deployment of six Harrier attack jets or six F-35 B fighters and 14-22 helicopters.

Critics of my warning of a possible kinetic conflict between US and Venezuelan forces keep reiterating the mantra that the US is short on ammunition due to the Russia/Ukraine war. This is an incomplete analysis, as the US is sending 155mm artillery shells, Stinger missiles and anti-tank javelins to Ukraine. The US stockpile of Tomahawk cruise missiles, Sidewinder and AMRAAM anti-aircraft missiles and bombs is more than adequate to expend on a limited strike on Venezuela.

The US has already fired over 130 Tomahawk missiles at Houthi rebels in Yemen, showing its willingness to devote resources to attacking terrorist threats.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has been facing formal drug trafficking charges from the US Department of Justice since 2020. US Attorney General Pam Bondi declared that Maduro is one of the most powerful drug traffickers in the world and a threat to the national security of the United States.

A military strike on a nation in the Western Hemisphere is a rare act for the USA; however, it is not unprecedented, as we must recall the invasion of Grenada in 1983 and Panama’s operation Just Cause in 1989.

The entire situation is, however, rather surreal, and it is hard to believe that military forces may get into a confrontation only a few hundred miles away from our homes in T&T.

On September 7, while I was of two minds about writing this column, the US Embassy of Guyana announced that US aircraft were scheduled to conduct a Guyana Defence Force-approved low pass flyover of Georgetown during Sunday’s presidential inauguration of Dr Irfaan Ali. This, to my knowledge, is unprecedented in Caribbean foreign relations and shows a strong commitment by the US to defend Guyana’s territory from Venezuelan claims.

Two AV-8B Harrier II jets flew over Georgetown during the inauguration, and this overflight will serve as a dry run for projecting power close to Venezuela’s borders. There are 10 F-35s in Puerto Rico at the moment with a combat radius of around 1,000km. The distance from Puerto Rico to Guyana is over 1,600km, which means the F-35s will require aerial refuelling to make the trip and get back to base.

The Pakistan and India conflict in May 2025 showed that two nuclear powers can shoot down each other’s aircraft and then de-escalate and sue for peace to prevent all-out war. Trump’s willingness to bomb Iranian nuclear sites and Houthi rebels using B2 bombers is also a historical precedent to consider applying to Venezuela’s possible future.

I believe that a small conflict is likely, with several Venezuelan aircraft and ships being shot down. However, given the US’ defence commitments to Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, a full-scale invasion would be too costly to conduct, as resources will be needed to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

It remains to be seen how many months this build-up of US forces can be maintained for. The existing deployment of ships may remain for up to six months before they have to return to port for maintenance.

Trump may make the decision to rotate fresh ships and crews into the Caribbean to maintain the campaign against Venezuelan cartels, or the matter may be shelved when other priorities arise.

As we ponder the many possible futures for conflict between the US and Venezuela, the sad reality is that war always claims the lives of innocents as collateral damage. I encourage readers to pray for peace.